NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Joshua DobbsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Vikings vs. Saints
Right now, Joshua Dobbs’s passing yards prop is set at 203.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 203.5 (-110) after it opened @ 201.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings may rely on the pass game less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
- The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- Our trusted projections expect Joshua Dobbs to throw 39.2 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks.
Cons
- Joshua Dobbs profiles as one of the weakest quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging 176.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 21st percentile.
- Joshua Dobbs comes in as one of the least on-target passers in the NFL this year with a 62.1% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 25th percentile.
- Joshua Dobbs has been one of the least efficient passers in football this year, averaging a lowly 5.95 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 9th percentile.
- This year, the tough Saints defense has allowed a feeble 210.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
- This year, the imposing Saints defense has conceded a measly 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-lowest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards
255
Passing Yards
