Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Javonte Williams from EV Insight

Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-135) after it opened @ 54.5 (-121).

Pros

The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to tilt 1.5% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects Javonte Williams to accrue 15.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Out of all running backs, Javonte Williams grades out in the 86th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 53.7% of the workload in his team’s run game.
With a remarkable rate of 49.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (79th percentile), Javonte Williams has been as one of the leading RBs in the NFL this year.
This year, the stout Bills run defense has allowed a puny 4.94 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 30th-lowest rate in the league.

Cons

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a big -7.5-point underdog this week.
The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 6th-least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 42.7% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Broncos have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
When it comes to the linebackers’ role in defending against the run, Buffalo’s collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards