Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Jaguars vs. 49ers
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 243.5 (-115) after it opened @ 237.5 (-115).
Pros
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
- The predictive model expects the Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a massive 60.5 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- Trevor Lawrence ranks as one of the best precision passers in the league this year with an impressive 68.0% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 75th percentile.
Cons
- The model projects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, giving up 6.81 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the league.
- The 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
