Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Jaguars vs. 49ers
Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
- The predictive model expects the Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a massive 60.5 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- With an exceptional 92.0% Route% (90th percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley ranks as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in football.
Cons
- The model projects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- With a bad 57.4% Adjusted Catch Rate (18th percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley rates as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among wideouts.
- Calvin Ridley checks in as one of the weakest wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.27 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.
- The 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
