Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Jaguars vs. 49ers
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
- The predictive model expects the Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a massive 60.5 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- Evan Engram’s 53.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows an impressive improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 43.0 rate.
Cons
- The model projects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered a meager 64.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 2nd-best rate in the NFL.
- The 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, yielding 4.95 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football.
- The 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
