Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Jaguars vs. 49ers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-125) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
- The leading projections forecast the 49ers as the 6th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- In this game, Christian McCaffrey is predicted by the projections to land in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.2 carries.
- When talking about executing run-blocking assignments (and the significance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the 49ers grades out as the 7th-best in the league last year.
- Christian McCaffrey’s 90.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season indicates a meaningful growth in his running skills over last season’s 68.0 mark.
Cons
- The model projects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 49ers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.5 plays per game.
- Christian McCaffrey has been much more involved in his team’s offense this year, staying in the game for 82.0% of snaps compared to just 71.5% last year.
- The opposing side have rushed for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 83.0 per game) vs. the Jaguars defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
