Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).
Pros
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Titans to run on 46.6% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects Derrick Henry to accumulate 19.5 carries in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Derrick Henry comes in as one of the top RBs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a remarkable 3.24 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 86th percentile.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in defending against the run, Tampa Bay’s DE corps has been terrible this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.
Cons
- The Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The model projects the Titans to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Titans have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.5 plays per game.
- Derrick Henry has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s rushing attack this season (69.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (80.1%).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 10th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 98.0 per game) vs. the Buccaneers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards
83
Rushing Yards
