Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Titans
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to earn 7.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Mike Evans has been more heavily featured in his offense’s pass attack.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
- Mike Evans grades out as one of the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a stellar 63.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.
- The Titans defense has been torched for the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (182.0) to wide receivers this year.
Cons
- The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (only 56.8 per game on average).
- After accumulating 117.0 air yards per game last season, Mike Evans has seen a big decline this season, now sitting at 110.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
