Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-105) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this game, Diontae Johnson is forecasted by the model to slot into the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.1 targets.
After accruing 89.0 air yards per game last season, Diontae Johnson has made big progress this season, now sitting at 98.0 per game.
Diontae Johnson’s 80.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a meaningful gain in his receiving talent over last year’s 56.0 mark.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in football.
Diontae Johnson has been used less as a potential target this season (78.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (96.2%).
When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards