Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-117) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).
Pros
- Aaron Jones has received 45.8% of his offense’s rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs.
- When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the significance it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 6th-best in the league last year.
- This year, the anemic Steelers run defense has yielded a massive 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-worst in football.
- The Pittsburgh defensive ends profile as the 6th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Packers to run on 40.6% of their chances: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the Packers to be the 9th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.46 seconds per snap.
- Aaron Jones has rushed for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).
- Aaron Jones’s 4.0 adjusted yards per carry this year shows a meaningful diminishment in his running skills over last year’s 5.1 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
