Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Packers
Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
- In this week’s game, Luke Musgrave is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.1 targets.
- With a high 14.1% Target Share (79th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave places among the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.
- In regards to air yards, Luke Musgrave ranks in the lofty 80th percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a colossal 28.0 per game.
- With a fantastic 31.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (77th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave stands among the best pass-catching TEs in football.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Packers to be the 9th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.46 seconds per snap.
- The Steelers defense has given up the 7th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 40.0) versus tight ends this year.
- When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Pittsburgh’s unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
