Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Olave from EV Insight

Chris OlaveReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-120).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 59.8% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are projected by the projections to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has yielded the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (173.0) to wide receivers this year.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Chris Olave rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing a mere 57.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 16th percentile among WRs
Chris Olave’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging a measly 6.68 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.44 rate last year.
With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Chris Olave places as one of the best pass-catching WRs in football in the open field.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota’s collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards