Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-142/+104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 16.5 (-142) after it opened @ 14.5 (-123).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers offensive approach to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
The Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.8 plays per game.
The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.1 per game) this year.
Hayden Hurst has put up a massive 28.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among TEs.

Cons

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Hayden Hurst has been featured much less in his offense’s passing offense.
In regards to pass protection (and the influence it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Panthers ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
Hayden Hurst’s 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year conveys a material diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 33.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards