Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trey McBrideReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Browns vs. Cardinals
Right now, Trey McBride’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-135) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Clayton Tune.
- The Cardinals are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- This week, Trey McBride is projected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 98th percentile among TEs with 7.2 targets.
- While Trey McBride has been responsible for 13.5% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Arizona’s passing offense in this week’s game at 22.7%.
- With a stellar 34.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (80th percentile) this year, Trey McBride ranks as one of the top pass-catching TEs in the NFL.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Right now, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (55.3% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Arizona Cardinals.
- The leading projections forecast the Cardinals to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.0 per game) this year.
- When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
