Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chuba HubbardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Panthers vs. Colts
Right now, Chuba Hubbard’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 133.0 total plays called: the most out of all the games this week.
- The Panthers have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 63.4 plays per game.
- In this contest, Chuba Hubbard is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs with 17.6 carries.
- While Chuba Hubbard has garnered 40.0% of his team’s run game usage in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Carolina’s run game this week at 62.8%.
- This year, the anemic Indianapolis Colts run defense has allowed a colossal 127.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 10th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
