Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).

Pros

In this week’s game, Brian Robinson is expected by the projections to secure a spot in the 80th percentile among RBs with 13.5 rush attempts.
Out of all running backs, Brian Robinson ranks in the 92nd percentile for carries this year, taking on 60.5% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders offensive gameplan to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 35.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Commanders to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Brian Robinson’s 46.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents an impressive diminishment in his running proficiency over last season’s 63.0 figure.
This year, the deficient New England Patriots run defense has allowed a whopping 3.78 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing rushing attacks: the 26th-highest rate in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards