Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-120/-109).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 89.5 (-109) after it opened @ 90.5 (-114).

Pros

At the moment, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Dolphins.
In this game, Tyreek Hill is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 11.5 targets.
Tyreek Hill’s 81.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 99th percentile for wideouts.
Tyreek Hill’s 119.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a material gain in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 92.0 mark.
Tyreek Hill’s sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 70.8% to 73.9%.

Cons

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
At the present time, the 9th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.
After averaging 131.0 air yards per game last year, Tyreek Hill has been a disappointment this year, now sitting at 122.0 per game.
This year, the fierce New England Patriots defense has allowed a feeble 140.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the 9th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
110
Receiving Yards