Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the predictive model to call 67.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
- In this contest, Alvin Kamara is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.5 carries.
- Alvin Kamara has earned 64.9% of his offense’s run game usage this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- With a remarkable total of 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (88th percentile), Alvin Kamara rates among the best pure runners in the NFL this year.
Cons
- The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.0% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- With a lousy tally of 2.23 yards after contact (14th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL.
- When it comes to the defensive ends’ role in defending against the run, Indianapolis’s group of DEs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
