Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-151/+110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-151) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 60.0% of their downs: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the predictive model to call 67.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The projections expect Chris Olave to earn 9.5 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Cons
- The New Orleans O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Chris Olave’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 60.1% to 56.2%.
- Chris Olave’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this season, averaging just 7.12 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.44 rate last season.
- With a lackluster 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Chris Olave places as one of the top wide receivers in the game in the league in the open field.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
