Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 58.5 (-112).

Pros

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 136.2 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Colts this year (a staggering 61.7 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
The predictive model expects Michael Pittman to accrue 9.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.

Cons

The Colts have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.8% pass rate.
Michael Pittman’s 68.0% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a significant reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 71.4% figure.
This year, the daunting New Orleans Saints defense has conceded a feeble 58.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-best rate in the league.
This year, the strong Saints defense has surrendered the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a feeble 7.2 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards