Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Packers vs. Vikings
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
- Aaron Jones has grinded out 59.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (89th percentile).
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to run on 40.6% of their downs: the 11th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The Packers have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
- Aaron Jones has been a much smaller part of his team’s running game this season (35.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (49.6%).
- Aaron Jones’s ground efficiency has diminished this year, averaging just 4.03 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.13 figure last year.
- This year, the weak Vikings run defense has surrendered a whopping 3.72 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 27th-highest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards
42
Rushing Yards
