Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-114).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
The most plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 67.2 per game on average).
Dallas Goedert has run a route on 88.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
The predictive model expects Dallas Goedert to accrue 6.0 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a whopping 51.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 10th-worst in football.

Cons

This week’s spread implies a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3 points.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 55.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
Dallas Goedert’s 40.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a an impressive reduction in his receiving prowess over last year’s 58.0 figure.
Dallas Goedert’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 80.2% to 73.0%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards