Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 1.8% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- In this week’s game, Austin Ekeler is predicted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.6 carries.
- Out of all RBs, Austin Ekeler ranks in the 82nd percentile for carries this year, making up 47.6% of the workload in his offense’s rushing attack.
- With an exceptional total of 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (89th percentile), Austin Ekeler places as one of the top pure rushers in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- This game’s line implies a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 37.4% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Chargers ranks as the 4th-worst in the league last year.
- Opposing teams have run for the 10th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 95.0 per game) versus the Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
