College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Vikings
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-110) after it opened @ 181.5 (-110).
Pros
- This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- Justin Fields’s 232.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season conveys a a material gain in his throwing ability over last season’s 149.0 figure.
- With a fantastic 7.62 adjusted yards-per-target (82nd percentile) this year, Justin Fields ranks as one of the most efficient passers in the NFL.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football versus the Vikings defense this year (80.9% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 49.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chicago Bears.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.
- In this week’s game, Justin Fields is expected by the predictive model to total the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 28.6.
- When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bears grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
199
Passing Yards
199
Passing Yards
