NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Browns vs. 49ers
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out backup QB PJ Walker this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This week’s line indicates a throwing game script for the Browns, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Browns this year (a massive 66.2 per game on average).
- The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
- The model projects David Njoku to garner 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- At the present time, the 9th-least pass-focused team in football (58.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Browns.
- The predictive model expects the Browns to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- David Njoku’s 14.4% Target Rate this season indicates a a significant regression in his passing attack usage over last season’s 20.3% figure.
- David Njoku has notched many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
