Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for David Njoku from EV Insight

David NjokuReceiving Yards

Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-110).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out backup QB PJ Walker this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This week’s line indicates a throwing game script for the Browns, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Browns this year (a massive 66.2 per game on average).
The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
The model projects David Njoku to garner 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cons

At the present time, the 9th-least pass-focused team in football (58.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Browns.
The predictive model expects the Browns to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
David Njoku’s 14.4% Target Rate this season indicates a a significant regression in his passing attack usage over last season’s 20.3% figure.
David Njoku has notched many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards