College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-130) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (40.8 per game) this year.
- The projections expect CeeDee Lamb to garner 8.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- CeeDee Lamb’s ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 71.7% to 76.8%.
- With a fantastic 10.3 adjusted yards per target (82nd percentile) this year, CeeDee Lamb stands as one of the best wide receivers in the game in the league.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are projected by the projection model to call 66.6 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
- CeeDee Lamb’s 22.2% Target% this year indicates a a remarkable regression in his passing game usage over last year’s 28.8% mark.
- After averaging 94.0 air yards per game last year, CeeDee Lamb has regressed heavily this year, now boasting 62.0 per game.
- CeeDee Lamb has posted substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (72.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
