College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Nico CollinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Texans vs. Saints
Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays called: the most among all games this week.
- The Houston Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.8 plays per game.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- In this contest, Nico Collins is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 85th percentile among WRs with 8.1 targets.
- Nico Collins’s 88.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year marks a a substantial improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 48.0 figure.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The model projects the Texans as the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.8% pass rate.
- This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has conceded a mere 58.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus wideouts this year, surrendering 6.92 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
- When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans’s group of LBs has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
