Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Panthers
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
- The Panthers are a massive 14-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Panthers as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.6 per game on average).
- When it comes to air yards, Hayden Hurst grades out in the towering 78th percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a whopping 24.0 per game.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are projected by the model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- Hayden Hurst’s 22.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 28.8.
- The the Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Hayden Hurst’s 20.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season marks a a noteworthy reduction in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 33.0 mark.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends this year, conceding 6.41 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
