WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bengals vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-114) after it opened @ 20.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Seahawks to pass on 60.1% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
- The projections expect the Seahawks offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.18 seconds per play.
- With a terrific 31.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Noah Fant has been as one of the top TEs in the pass game in the NFL.
- Noah Fant’s 90.7% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a a noteworthy boost in his receiving ability over last year’s 78.4% rate.
Cons
- Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Bengals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.8 per game) this year.
- Noah Fant has been used less as a potential target this season (43.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (54.3%).
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.85 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
