WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
George PickensReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Steelers
Right now, George Pickens’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
- Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The leading projections forecast George Pickens to garner 8.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.
- George Pickens’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.5% to 56.9%.
- George Pickens has been among the bottom wide receivers in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- The Texans defense has given up the 3rd-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 128.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
