Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Gus Edwards

Gus EdwardsRushing Yards

Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).

Pros

The Ravens are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Gus Edwards to notch 15.9 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Gus Edwards’s rushing efficiency (4.88 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (81st percentile among RBs).

Cons

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Indianapolis Colts defense owns the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 4.33 yards-per-carry.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards