Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darius Slayton

Darius SlaytonReceiving Yards

Right now, Darius Slayton’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-114).

Pros

The Giants are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Darius Slayton has received a monstrous 30.7% of his offense’s air yards since the start of last season: 87th percentile among WRs.
Darius Slayton has been among the top WRs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 78th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (162.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 59.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Darius Slayton’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.5% to 59.5%.
Darius Slayton’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating just 7.57 yards-per-target vs a 9.47 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards