NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Darius SlaytonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
49ers vs. Giants
Right now, Darius Slayton’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Giants are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- Darius Slayton has received a monstrous 30.7% of his offense’s air yards since the start of last season: 87th percentile among WRs.
- Darius Slayton has been among the top WRs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 78th percentile.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (162.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 59.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Darius Slayton’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.5% to 59.5%.
- Darius Slayton’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating just 7.57 yards-per-target vs a 9.47 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
