Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
- Austin Ekeler has averaged 58.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (80th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 102 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
