Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-105) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to garner 4.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing an impressive 78.5% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Noah Fant has posted quite a few less air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant’s 24.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 37.1.
Noah Fant has accumulated significantly fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 6.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards