WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-105) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to garner 4.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
- Noah Fant has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing an impressive 78.5% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Noah Fant has posted quite a few less air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
- Noah Fant’s 24.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 37.1.
- Noah Fant has accumulated significantly fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 6.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
