Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Andy DaltonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Eagles vs. Saints
Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 197.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 197.5 (-110) after it opened @ 198.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Andy Dalton’s passing effectiveness has been refined this year, notching 7.41 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.19 mark last year.
- The Philadelphia Eagles safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.5% pass rate.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
- Andy Dalton has attempted a measly 29.0 passes per game this year, ranking in the 24th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 216.0 per game) versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
205
Passing Yards
205
Passing Yards
