WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Ravens vs. Falcons
Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has received 42.3% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 78th percentile among running backs.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the best in the league this year in run blocking.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has run for quite a few more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
Cons
- The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.6 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 86 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
- The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
