WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Bills
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (+108/-148).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-148) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 70.7% pass rate.
- Dawson Knox has run a route on 75.6% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
- Dawson Knox has accumulated a whopping 36.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
- Dawson Knox has notched many fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
