Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- Terry McLaurin has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a terrific 70.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Terry McLaurin has put up quite a few less air yards this year (91.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.79 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
