Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Commanders
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 216.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 216.5 (-110) after it opened @ 218.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in football), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-least yards in the NFL (just 217.0 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards
214
Passing Yards
