Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Commanders
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to earn 6.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
- Brandon Aiyuk has totaled many more air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 53.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 42.9.
- Brandon Aiyuk has put up a lot more receiving yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
