WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Patriots vs. Bengals
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-133) after it opened @ 225.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Mac Jones’s throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.9% to 64.6%.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
233
Passing Yards
233
Passing Yards
