Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Patriots vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 258.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 258.5 (-110) after it opened @ 262.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 37.5 throws per game this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- Joe Burrow has been among the leading QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 283.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
- Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL this year with a terrific 69.0% Completion%, ranking in the 97th percentile.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (65.6%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, allowing 7.23 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards
239
Passing Yards
