WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Patriots vs. Bengals
Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 98.8% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to garner 9.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
- Ja’Marr Chase has put up substantially more receiving yards per game (92.0) this season than he did last season (78.0).
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Ja’Marr Chase has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (96.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).
- Ja’Marr Chase’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, averaging a measly 8.84 yards-per-target compared to a 10.34 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
