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Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

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Justin Jefferson

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 16

Vikings vs. Giants

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 88.5 (-115) after it opened @ 92.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
  • Justin Jefferson has compiled substantially more receiving yards per game (112.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).
Cons

  • The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
  • Justin Jefferson has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
  • Justin Jefferson’s 69.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
  • The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection
THE BLITZ
118
Receiving Yards

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