Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
T.J. Hockenson’s 40.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has accumulated significantly fewer receiving yards per game (18.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards