Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Vikings vs. Giants
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
- T.J. Hockenson’s 40.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson has accumulated significantly fewer receiving yards per game (18.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
