Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-105/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 248.5 (-120) after it opened @ 260.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- Geno Smith has been among the top QBs in football this year, averaging a terrific 266.0 yards per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have run the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 54.1 plays per game.
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
