Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-120/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-120) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to accrue 9.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has accumulated significantly more receiving yards per game (86.0) this season than he did last season (76.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards