Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Seahawks
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-120/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-120) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.4 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to accrue 9.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- Travis Kelce has accumulated significantly more receiving yards per game (86.0) this season than he did last season (76.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
