WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-127) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accrue 3.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the league (64.0) to tight ends this year.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Completion% in football (75.5%) versus tight ends this year (75.5%).
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 8.12 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
