Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jordan Akins from EV Insight

Jordan AkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Jordan Akins’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a massive 14.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Jordan Akins has posted quite a few more receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).

Cons

The Houston Texans have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.4 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (68.9%) to tight ends this year (68.9%).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 9th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards