WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Jordan AkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Texans vs. Chiefs
Right now, Jordan Akins’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a massive 14.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- Jordan Akins has posted quite a few more receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).
Cons
- The Houston Texans have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.4 plays per game.
- The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (68.9%) to tight ends this year (68.9%).
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 9th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
