NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to garner 15.1 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
- Brian Robinson has been given 52.0% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
- The New York Giants defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.35 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
- Brian Robinson’s running efficiency (3.70 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (13th percentile among running backs).
- Brian Robinson has been among the bottom RBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.59 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 11th percentile.
- The New York Giants defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
